Model-driven college football coverage from the Gridpex desks.
It's Week 1 of 2026 — zero snaps of the new season to study. Here's how our preseason engine reads this rematch from last year, the portal, and the quarterback room.
On paper this is a marquee Big Ten road test, and we treat it like one — with a giant asterisk attached. The lean says Indiana, the recent track record says Oh…
The read on Oregon at Ohio State is almost stubbornly boring. These look like two of the best teams in the country, with Ohio State a hair ahead, the kind of g…
There are games that are won and games that are survived. Indiana 13, Ohio State 10, under the roof at Lucas Oil Stadium, was the second kind — a heavyweight t…
This is the rare championship matchup with no obvious favorite and no obvious flaw to attack. Indiana walks into Indianapolis 15-0 and ranked first in our powe…
Notre Dame had the first word. Five minutes into the night, Riley Leonard punched it in from a yard out, the Irish sideline roared, and for one quarter under t…
Strip away the seeding and the storylines and you're left with a number that almost looks like a shrug: Notre Dame by the thinnest sliver at home, a game as cl…
Coming in, we made Georgia the better team here by about a touchdown — call it seven points. The oddsmakers barely had Georgia favored at all, more like a one-…
On paper, the bookmakers looked like the ones who blew it. Oregon got beat by 20, even though Vegas made them a small favorite, laying just 2.5 points. But her…
They came to the Bronx with a streak and a plan and a quarterback who runs downhill, and for one quarter Army even looked the part. Then Notre Dame turned Yank…
There are games you win with a haymaker and games you win by the width of a fingernail. Penn State left Huntington Bank Stadium on Saturday night having won by…
There is a kind of football game that gets decided by who has the best player on the field, and there is another kind that gets decided by who has the most wil…
For three quarters in Tempe, this was Cam Skattebo's evening and everyone else was just renting space on the field. He scored from three yards in the first qua…
For six minutes, the unbeaten visitors looked like they belonged. Indiana took the opening fight to Ohio Stadium, ground its way to the doorstep, and Ty Son La…
GAINESVILLE — Jaxson Dart threw for 323 yards Saturday night, and he will spend the rest of the season trying to forget every one of them. The numbers on the b…
Two teams arrive in South Bend playing better than their reputations. Army carries an 11-1 record built on the option, ball control, and a defense that gives u…
This is one of those November games we can read with more confidence than usual. The number we're leaning on isn't a dusty preseason guess or a tidied-up final…
Nobody should fall in love with either of these teams, and the smart read is honest about that. Color it Colorado by about four in Lawrence — a hair under a to…
This isn't a summer guess and it isn't a final report card on the season. It's a read taken right now, in week 13, that starts with what we expected from each…
We walk into Columbus with a clear but careful opinion: Ohio State by a touchdown. Back the Buckeyes, expect them to win by a little less than seven, and call…
The lean is blunt: Ole Miss should win at Florida by about 15 points, and the Rebels figure to leave Gainesville with the win roughly four times out of five. T…
Vegas hung Miami (OH) as a 30.7-point favorite over Kent State, treating this like a wipe-the-floor mismatch. The smart read had it a lot closer — Miami the be…
The number told one story; San Diego State told another. The betting line had the Aztecs as roughly a 17-point underdog. The smart read pegged them closer to a…
Going in, the smart read was that the betting public had Tennessee pegged too low. The market made the Volunteers a big favorite, but our number on them was bi…