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Tyler Shough

#9Tyler Shough

Line value
8.7 pts
NFL Draft OutlookDay 2 (Rds 2–3)· model estimate based on position rank

Tyler Shough is a Dual-Threat QB for Louisville. Tyler's 2024 season ranks in the 85th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 421 plays — a above-average rate for the QB.

2024 Production

Passing
244/389 Comp/Att3195 Pass yards23 Pass TD6 INT62.7% Comp %
Rushing
19 Rush yards1 Rush TD42 Carries0.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs QB peers

EfficiencyVolumeDual-ThreatConsistencyClutch
Player type
Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)85th %ile · above avg
Game-to-game consistency83th %ile · above avg
Key findings
  • Above-average efficiency for the QB position (85th percentile).
  • High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
  • High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • 6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • Production faded as the season progressed — 0.13 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
  • Peak game: 0.95 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Georgia Tech (SP+ 2).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗
Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

PlayerTeamYrPlaysWEPA/playLine valTotal EPA
Stetson BennettGeorgia20225090.63512.4323.0
Tanner MordecaiSMU20215100.63014.0321.5

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

Wk 1 vs Austin Peay: +0.58 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs Jacksonville State: +0.53 EPA/play2Wk 4 vs Georgia Tech: +0.95 EPA/play4Wk 5 vs Notre Dame: +0.15 EPA/play5Wk 6 vs SMU: +0.28 EPA/play6Wk 7 vs Virginia: +0.41 EPA/play7Wk 8 vs Miami: +0.43 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs Boston College: +0.40 EPA/play9Wk 10 vs Clemson: +0.20 EPA/play10Wk 12 vs Stanford: +0.23 EPA/play12Wk 13 vs Pittsburgh: +0.69 EPA/play13Wk 14 vs Kentucky: +0.14 EPA/play14
EPA per play, by weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+C/ATTPass YdsPass TDINTQBRRush YdsRush TDEPA/play
1vsAustin PeayW62-018/242324083.3-1000.58
2vsJacksonville StateW49-14-1.021/333492086.3600.53
4vsGeorgia TechW31-191.913/192692080.21900.95
5@Notre DameL24-3123.924/412643172.23600.15
6vsSMUL27-3417.522/353292177.8-2600.28
7@VirginiaW24-20-5.118/312311169.7-100.41
8vsMiamiL45-5221.631/513424074.5-3200.43
9@Boston CollegeW31-271.228/383322264.01300.40
10@ClemsonW33-2113.317/321560078.1910.20
12@StanfordL35-38-8.226/392701170.30.23
13vsPittsburghW37-94.917/282932088.6-600.69
14@KentuckyW41-145.59/181280061.41100.14

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
54.1%
Passing plays
96.8%
Rushing plays
7.5%
Standard downs
45.0%
Passing downs
76.0%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.24
Passing downs
0.62
Pass / Rush EPA
0.41 / 0.20

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg
2024 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.