← All games
Austin Peay vs. Middle Tennessee: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Aug 30, 11:00 PM
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUST | 14 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 34 |
| MTSU | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 14 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
MTSU (top)AUST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MTSU 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
Advanced stats unavailable for this matchup.
Drive-by-drive
AUST 6/14 scoring drives← own end zone →MTSU 2/13 scoring drives
MTSUPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1
AUSTTD7 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q1
MTSUPUNT5 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q1
AUSTPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 8Q1
MTSUDOWNS4 pl, 6 yds· own 47Q1
AUSTTD8 pl, 53 yds· own 47Q1
MTSUPUNT4 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q1
AUSTTD17 pl, 89 yds· own 11Q1
MTSUPUNT5 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q2
AUSTPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 30Q2
MTSUTD6 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q2
AUSTEND1 pl, 5 yds· own 13Q2
AUSTFG9 pl, 52 yds· own 25Q3
MTSUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q3
AUSTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 23Q3
MTSUPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 39Q3
AUSTPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 12Q3
MTSUTD5 pl, 44 yds· opp 44Q3
AUSTPUNT5 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q3
MTSUDOWNS4 pl, 6 yds· own 38Q3
AUSTFG5 pl, 25 yds· opp 44Q4
MTSUPUNT3 pl, -11 yds· own 40Q4
AUSTTD7 pl, 28 yds· opp 28Q4
MTSUDOWNS11 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q4
AUSTPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· opp 43Q4
MTSUPUNT3 pl, -12 yds· own 28Q4
AUSTEND2 pl, -1 yds· own 43Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
AUST up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
AUST went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Austin Peay vs. Middle Tennessee?
Austin Peay 34, Middle Tennessee 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (AUST) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had AUST pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.