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Coastal Carolina vs. Virginia: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Aug 30, 10:00 PM
Scott Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCU | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| UVA | 7 | 21 | 14 | 6 | 48 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
UVA 1404
CCU 1379
Projected spread
UVA -3.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
UVA
60% to win
Market spread
UVA -13
sportsbook line
Model edge
CCU
9.6 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
60%
UVA · market 79%
Our model blends Elo ratings (UVA Elo 1404, CCU Elo 1379) plus home-field advantage. That projects UVA -3.4 (60% to win) — 9.6 points of value on CCU versus the market line of -13.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
UVA (top)CCU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UVA 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
CCU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedUVA
Offense
0.09
PPA / play
0.1837%
Success rate
42%1.28
Explosiveness
1.293.80
Pts / opportunity
3.5673%
Power success
81%Defense
0.19
PPA allowed / play
0.0643%
Success rate allowed
37%1.30
Explosiveness allowed
1.1915%
Havoc rate
18%18%
Stuff rate
19%Key matchups · Pro
- UVA pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. CCU pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge CCU.
- UVA rush offense (0.19 PPA) vs. CCU rush defense (0.15 allowed) — edge UVA.
- CCU rush offense (0.07 PPA) vs. UVA rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge CCU.
Drive-by-drive
CCU 1/15 scoring drives← own end zone →UVA 6/13 scoring drives
UVAMISS8 pl, 41 yds· own 25Q1
CCUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 34Q1
UVADOWNS6 pl, 19 yds· own 28Q1
CCUFUM7 pl, 27 yds· opp 47Q1
UVAPUNT5 pl, 13 yds· own 20Q1
CCUPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 10Q1
UVATD4 pl, 52 yds· own 48Q1
CCUPUNT5 pl, 15 yds· own 25Q1
UVATD7 pl, 36 yds· opp 36Q2
CCUPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q2
UVAPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 11Q2
CCUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 49Q2
UVATD7 pl, 90 yds· own 10Q2
CCUPUNT6 pl, 34 yds· own 25Q2
UVATD8 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2
CCUEND1 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q2
CCUINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q3
UVATD8 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q3
CCUTD14 pl, 79 yds· own 21Q3
CCUDOWNS8 pl, 43 yds· own 25Q3
UVAFG15 pl, 53 yds· own 32Q3
CCUPUNT3 pl, -10 yds· own 25Q4
UVAFG4 pl, 8 yds· opp 32Q4
CCUPUNT4 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q4
UVAPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 38Q4
CCUFUM5 pl, 18 yds· own 5Q4
UVADOWNS4 pl, -6 yds· opp 23Q4
CCUEND1 pl, 4 yds· own 29Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
UVA up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 276 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
UVA went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Coastal Carolina vs. Virginia?
Coastal Carolina 7, Virginia 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UVA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had UVA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.