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Eastern Michigan vs. Texas State: Final Score & Recap
Sun, Aug 31, 12:00 AM
Bobcat Stadium (TX)
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMU | 3 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 27 |
| TXST | 14 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 52 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
TXST 1593
EMU 1283
Projected spread
TXST -14.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
TXST
86% to win
Market spread
TXST -14
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
86%
TXST · market 81%
Our model blends Elo ratings (TXST Elo 1593, EMU Elo 1283) plus home-field advantage. That projects TXST -14.8 (86% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
TXST (top)EMU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TXST 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
EMU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedTXST
Offense
0.19
PPA / play
0.3342%
Success rate
46%1.24
Explosiveness
1.363.95
Pts / opportunity
4.4264%
Power success
67%Defense
0.24
PPA allowed / play
0.1844%
Success rate allowed
41%1.29
Explosiveness allowed
1.3211%
Havoc rate
16%17%
Stuff rate
24%Key matchups · Pro
- TXST rush offense (0.28 PPA) vs. EMU rush defense (0.19 allowed) — edge TXST.
- TXST pass offense (0.42 PPA) vs. EMU pass defense (0.35 allowed) — edge TXST.
- EMU rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. TXST rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge EMU.
Drive-by-drive
EMU 5/10 scoring drives← own end zone →TXST 8/11 scoring drives
TXSTTD4 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
EMUFG9 pl, 68 yds· own 25Q1
TXSTTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
EMUPUNT4 pl, 24 yds· own 25Q1
TXSTPUNT8 pl, 33 yds· own 20Q1
EMUTD8 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1
TXSTFG12 pl, 68 yds· own 25Q2
EMUPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q2
TXSTTD5 pl, 92 yds· own 8Q2
EMUTD11 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q2
TXSTEND1 pl, 5 yds· own 15Q2
EMUPUNT5 pl, 12 yds· own 25Q3
TXSTTD10 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q3
EMUPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q3
TXSTTD9 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q3
EMUPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 20Q3
TXSTTD5 pl, 35 yds· opp 35Q4
EMUFG10 pl, 56 yds· own 25Q4
TXSTTD5 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q4
EMUTD13 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
TXSTEND2 pl, 13 yds· own 25Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
TXST up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
TXST went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Eastern Michigan vs. Texas State?
Eastern Michigan 27, Texas State 52.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TXST) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had TXST pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.