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Georgia State vs. Ole Miss: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Aug 30, 11:45 PM
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAST | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| MISS | 7 | 18 | 17 | 21 | 63 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MISS 1838
GAST 1331
Projected spread
MISS -22.7
incl. home edge
Model pick
MISS
95% to win
Market spread
MISS -35
sportsbook line
Model edge
GAST
12.3 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
95%
MISS · market 97%
Our model blends Elo ratings (MISS Elo 1838, GAST Elo 1331) plus home-field advantage. That projects MISS -22.7 (95% to win) — 12.3 points of value on GAST versus the market line of -35.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
MISS (top)GAST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MISS 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
GAST2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedMISS
Offense
0.14
PPA / play
0.3041%
Success rate
48%1.25
Explosiveness
1.293.39
Pts / opportunity
4.4463%
Power success
78%Defense
0.27
PPA allowed / play
0.1346%
Success rate allowed
40%1.27
Explosiveness allowed
1.2913%
Havoc rate
17%14%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- GAST rush offense (0.06 PPA) vs. MISS rush defense (0.19 allowed) — edge MISS.
- GAST pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. MISS pass defense (0.13 allowed) — edge GAST.
- MISS rush offense (0.15 PPA) vs. GAST rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge GAST.
Drive-by-drive
GAST 1/15 scoring drives← own end zone →MISS 10/14 scoring drives
GASTPUNT7 pl, 13 yds· own 25Q1
MISSTD3 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1
GASTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q1
MISSINT1 pl, 10 yds· own 21Q1
GASTMISS8 pl, 12 yds· opp 25Q1
MISSINT5 pl, 63 yds· own 20Q1
GASTPUNT6 pl, 37 yds· own 20Q1
MISSFG8 pl, 60 yds· own 16Q2
GASTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q2
MISSTD9 pl, 56 yds· own 44Q2
GASTTD4 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
MISSTD16 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
GASTEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2
MISSTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
GASTINT2 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q3
MISSTD3 pl, 20 yds· opp 20Q3
GASTPUNT4 pl, 11 yds· own 25Q3
MISSPUNT5 pl, 6 yds· own 7Q3
GASTDOWNS5 pl, 16 yds· own 37Q3
MISSFG10 pl, 37 yds· own 47Q3
GASTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q3
MISSTD2 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q4
GASTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 19Q4
MISSPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 32Q4
GASTPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 9Q4
MISSTD6 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q4
GASTDOWNS8 pl, 62 yds· own 20Q4
MISSTD6 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q4
GASTEND1 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
MISS up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 276 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
MISS went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia State vs. Ole Miss?
Georgia State 7, Ole Miss 63.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MISS) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had MISS pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.