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Missouri State vs. USC: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Aug 30, 11:30 PM
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOST | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| USC | 14 | 28 | 14 | 17 | 73 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
USC 1676
MOST 1500
Projected spread
USC -9.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
USC
76% to win
Market spread
USC -36
sportsbook line
Model edge
MOST
26.6 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
76%
USC (no market)
Our model blends Elo ratings (USC Elo 1676, MOST Elo 1500) plus home-field advantage. That projects USC -9.4 (76% to win) — 26.6 points of value on MOST versus the market line of -36.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
USC (top)MOST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: USC 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
MOST2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedUSC
Offense
0.18
PPA / play
0.3339%
Success rate
49%1.50
Explosiveness
1.323.69
Pts / opportunity
4.6661%
Power success
75%Defense
0.23
PPA allowed / play
0.1643%
Success rate allowed
45%1.31
Explosiveness allowed
1.1715%
Havoc rate
16%20%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- USC pass offense (0.52 PPA) vs. MOST pass defense (0.33 allowed) — edge USC.
- MOST pass offense (0.34 PPA) vs. USC pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge MOST.
- MOST rush offense (0.03 PPA) vs. USC rush defense (0.13 allowed) — edge USC.
Drive-by-drive
MOST 4/13 scoring drives← own end zone →USC 10/12 scoring drives
MOSTFG9 pl, 48 yds· own 25Q1
USCTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
MOSTPUNT3 pl, 13 yds· own 25Q1
USCTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
MOSTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q1
USCTD1 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q2
MOSTTD3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q2
MOSTTD7 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q2
USCTD8 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q2
MOSTPUNT5 pl, 15 yds· own 25Q2
USCTD5 pl, 97 yds· own 3Q2
MOSTEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2
USCTD8 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q3
MOSTPUNT4 pl, 15 yds· own 25Q3
USCFUM1 pl, -5 yds· own 27Q3
MOSTFG4 pl, -7 yds· opp 22Q3
USCTD1 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
MOSTINT8 pl, 42 yds· own 25Q3
USCTD4 pl, 38 yds· opp 38Q3
MOSTFUM1 pl, 6 yds· own 16Q4
USCFG5 pl, 7 yds· opp 22Q4
MOSTPUNT3 pl, -10 yds· own 25Q4
USCTD7 pl, 52 yds· own 48Q4
MOSTPUNT8 pl, 32 yds· own 19Q4
USCEND1 pl, 4 yds· own 6Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
USC up 43 entering the 4th quarter. Across 212 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
USC went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Missouri State vs. USC?
Missouri State 13, USC 73.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USC) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had USC pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.