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Montana State vs. Oregon: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Aug 30, 8:00 PM
Autzen Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MONT | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 |
| ORE | 17 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 59 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelMONT 11% · ORE 89%
Market consensusMONT 4% · ORE 96%
Pick: ORE · 7 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
Advanced stats unavailable for this matchup.
Drive-by-drive
MONT 3/9 scoring drives← own end zone →ORE 9/10 scoring drives
ORETD6 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q1
MONTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 21Q1
ORETD3 pl, 40 yds· opp 40Q1
MONTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q1
OREFG4 pl, 5 yds· opp 10Q1
MONTDOWNS8 pl, 34 yds· own 25Q1
ORETD12 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q1
MONTPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q2
ORETD10 pl, 52 yds· own 48Q2
MONTFG13 pl, 50 yds· own 25Q2
ORETD6 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q2
MONTFG9 pl, 51 yds· own 25Q3
ORETD6 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q3
MONTPUNT6 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q3
ORETD6 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3
MONTPUNT6 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q3
ORETD8 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q4
MONTTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
OREEND4 pl, 13 yds· own 24Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ORE up 46 entering the 4th quarter. Across 107 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
ORE went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Montana State vs. Oregon?
Montana State 13, Oregon 59.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ORE) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had ORE pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.