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Sam Houston vs. Western Kentucky: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Aug 23, 11:00 PM
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHSU | 3 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 24 |
| WKU | 7 | 13 | 14 | 7 | 41 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WKU 1409
SHSU 1452
Projected spread
WKU -0.7
incl. home edge
Model pick
WKU
52% to win
Market spread
WKU -10
sportsbook line
Model edge
SHSU
9.3 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
52%
WKU · market 76%
Our model blends Elo ratings (WKU Elo 1409, SHSU Elo 1452) plus home-field advantage. That projects WKU -0.7 (52% to win) — 9.3 points of value on SHSU versus the market line of -10.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
WKU (top)SHSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WKU 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
SHSU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedWKU
Offense
0.01
PPA / play
0.1637%
Success rate
43%1.24
Explosiveness
1.242.79
Pts / opportunity
4.2166%
Power success
81%Defense
0.22
PPA allowed / play
0.1148%
Success rate allowed
37%1.24
Explosiveness allowed
1.3414%
Havoc rate
16%17%
Stuff rate
22%Key matchups · Pro
- SHSU pass offense (0.01 PPA) vs. WKU pass defense (0.16 allowed) — edge WKU.
- WKU pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. SHSU pass defense (0.36 allowed) — edge SHSU.
- WKU rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. SHSU rush defense (0.15 allowed) — edge SHSU.
Drive-by-drive
SHSU 3/15 scoring drives← own end zone →WKU 8/15 scoring drives
WKUPUNT4 pl, 14 yds· own 16Q1
SHSUPUNT4 pl, 23 yds· own 20Q1
WKUTD9 pl, 87 yds· own 13Q1
SHSUPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1
SHSUFG4 pl, 3 yds· opp 24Q1
WKUPUNT6 pl, 17 yds· own 20Q1
SHSUMISS9 pl, 51 yds· own 24Q1
WKUPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q2
SHSUTD2 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q2
WKUTD13 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
SHSUDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q2
WKUFG4 pl, 4 yds· opp 34Q2
SHSUPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q2
WKUFG11 pl, 38 yds· own 38Q2
SHSUEND1 pl, -6 yds· own 25Q2
SHSUTD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
WKUTD4 pl, 8 yds· own 35Q3
WKUTD9 pl, 87 yds· own 13Q3
SHSUPUNT4 pl, 13 yds· own 25Q3
WKUTD4 pl, 87 yds· own 13Q3
SHSUPUNT3 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q3
WKUPUNT6 pl, 6 yds· own 19Q3
SHSUINT7 pl, 44 yds· own 4Q3
WKUTD6 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q4
SHSUPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q4
WKUPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 24Q4
SHSUDOWNS4 pl, 0 yds· own 38Q4
WKUDOWNS4 pl, 5 yds· opp 38Q4
SHSUDOWNS7 pl, 63 yds· own 33Q4
WKUEND2 pl, 14 yds· own 4Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
WKU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
WKU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Sam Houston vs. Western Kentucky?
Sam Houston 24, Western Kentucky 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WKU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had WKU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.