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Southeast Missouri State vs. Arkansas State: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Aug 30, 11:00 PM
Centennial Bank Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOUT | 7 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 24 |
| ARST | 7 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 42 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ARST (top)SOUT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ARST 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
Advanced stats unavailable for this matchup.
Drive-by-drive
SOUT 4/12 scoring drives← own end zone →ARST 6/11 scoring drives
ARSTTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
SOUTFG19 pl, 68 yds· own 10Q1
SOUTTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
ARSTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 33Q1
SOUTEND1 pl, 0 yds· own 31Q2
ARSTTD9 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q2
SOUTFUM4 pl, 13 yds· own 25Q2
ARSTTD2 pl, 43 yds· opp 43Q2
SOUTPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 25Q2
ARSTDOWNS7 pl, 24 yds· own 44Q2
SOUTPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 32Q2
ARSTTD11 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q2
SOUTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q3
SOUTDOWNS14 pl, 59 yds· own 9Q3
ARSTTD3 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q3
SOUTPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q3
ARSTFUM11 pl, 62 yds· own 30Q3
ARSTTD10 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q4
SOUTTD4 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
ARSTPUNT6 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q4
SOUTTD7 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q4
ARSTTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
SOUTUncateg1 pl, 0 yds· own 12Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ARST up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
ARST went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Southeast Missouri State vs. Arkansas State?
Southeast Missouri State 24, Arkansas State 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SOUT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had SOUT pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.