UNLV vs. Sam Houston: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Aug 30, 1:30 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV | 14 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 38 |
| SHSU | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 21 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo ratings (SHSU Elo 1411, UNLV Elo 1619) on a neutral field. That projects SHSU +8.3 (27% to win) — 2.2 points of value on SHSU versus the market line of +10.5.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: UNLV · 5 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
Offense
Defense
Key matchups · Pro
- SHSU pass offense (0.01 PPA) vs. UNLV pass defense (0.25 allowed) — edge UNLV.
- SHSU rush offense (0.07 PPA) vs. UNLV rush defense (0.23 allowed) — edge UNLV.
- UNLV rush offense (0.26 PPA) vs. SHSU rush defense (0.15 allowed) — edge UNLV.
Drive-by-drive
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
UNLV up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of UNLV vs. Sam Houston?
UNLV 38, Sam Houston 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNLV) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
Called it — I had UNLV pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.