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San José State vs. USC Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Aug 29, 7:00 PM
Los Angeles Memorial ColiseumNBC
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
USC 1871
SJSU 1146
Projected spread
USC -32.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
USC
99% to win
Market spread
USC -35.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
SJSU
2.9 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
99%
USC (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (USC Elo 1871, SJSU Elo 1146) plus home-field advantage. That projects USC -32.6 (99% to win) — 2.9 points of value on SJSU versus the market line of -35.5.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelSJSU 1% · USC 99%
Pick: USC
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
SJSU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedUSC
Offense
0.18
PPA / play
0.3344%
Success rate
49%1.26
Explosiveness
1.322.77
Pts / opportunity
4.6671%
Power success
75%Defense
0.20
PPA allowed / play
0.1642%
Success rate allowed
45%1.30
Explosiveness allowed
1.1712%
Havoc rate
16%14%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- USC pass offense (0.52 PPA) vs. SJSU pass defense (0.34 allowed) — edge USC.
- USC rush offense (0.18 PPA) vs. SJSU rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge USC.
- SJSU pass offense (0.22 PPA) vs. USC pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge SJSU.
FAQ
Who will win San José State vs. USC?
Gridpex's model favors USC with a 99% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for San José State vs. USC?
The model projects USC by 32.6.
What time is San José State vs. USC and what channel is it on?
Sat, Aug 29, 7:00 PM on NBC, at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this USC at 99% to win, projecting USC by 32.6.