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Michigan vs. Ohio State: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Nov 30, 5:00 PM
Ohio StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MICH | 0 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| OSU | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
OSU 2120
MICH 1867
Projected spread
OSU -12.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
OSU
82% to win
Market spread
OSU -20
sportsbook line
Model edge
MICH
7.5 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
82%
OSU · market 90%
Our model blends Elo ratings (OSU Elo 2120, MICH Elo 1867) plus home-field advantage. That projects OSU -12.5 (82% to win) — 7.5 points of value on MICH versus the market line of -20.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
OSU (top)MICH (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: OSU 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2024
MICH2024 season · higher-impact side highlightedOSU
Offense
0.10
PPA / play
0.4240%
Success rate
51%1.09
Explosiveness
1.364.18
Pts / opportunity
4.5784%
Power success
79%Defense
0.13
PPA allowed / play
0.0238%
Success rate allowed
37%1.28
Explosiveness allowed
1.1819%
Havoc rate
21%18%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- OSU pass offense (0.58 PPA) vs. MICH pass defense (0.21 allowed) — edge OSU.
- OSU rush offense (0.28 PPA) vs. MICH rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge OSU.
- MICH rush offense (0.10 PPA) vs. OSU rush defense (-0.03 allowed) — edge MICH.
Drive-by-drive
MICH 3/11 scoring drives← own end zone →OSU 2/10 scoring drives
MICHPUNT6 pl, 25 yds· own 11Q1
OSUFG9 pl, 58 yds· own 31Q1
MICHDOWNS11 pl, 72 yds· own 25Q1
OSUINT3 pl, 1 yds· own 3Q2
MICHTD2 pl, 2 yds· opp 2Q2
OSUMISS10 pl, 55 yds· own 25Q2
MICHPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 20Q2
OSUPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 7Q2
MICHFG4 pl, 3 yds· opp 39Q2
OSUTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
MICHEND1 pl, 6 yds· own 28Q2
OSUPUNT10 pl, 56 yds· own 6Q3
MICHPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 2Q3
OSUINT7 pl, 31 yds· opp 47Q3
MICHINT3 pl, 3 yds· own 9Q3
OSUMISS4 pl, 0 yds· opp 16Q3
MICHINT15 pl, 77 yds· own 20Q3
OSUPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 12Q4
MICHFG11 pl, 57 yds· own 40Q4
OSUDOWNS4 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q4
MICHEND1 pl, -16 yds· opp 26Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,328 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
50%
OSU win rate
How often the home team won from here
FAQ
What was the final score of Michigan vs. Ohio State?
Michigan 13, Ohio State 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had OSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.