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Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Sep 7, 4:00 PM
Nippert Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PITT | 3 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 28 |
| CIN | 14 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 27 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
CIN 1394
PITT 1486
Projected spread
CIN +1.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
PITT
54% to win
Market spread
CIN -0.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
46%
CIN · market 53%
Our model blends Elo ratings (CIN Elo 1394, PITT Elo 1486) plus home-field advantage. That projects CIN +1.3 (46% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
CIN (top)PITT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: CIN 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2024
PITT2024 season · higher-impact side highlightedCIN
Offense
0.15
PPA / play
0.2142%
Success rate
45%1.35
Explosiveness
1.264.11
Pts / opportunity
3.3377%
Power success
71%Defense
0.12
PPA allowed / play
0.1838%
Success rate allowed
42%1.42
Explosiveness allowed
1.2820%
Havoc rate
16%25%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- CIN rush offense (0.15 PPA) vs. PITT rush defense (-0.00 allowed) — edge CIN.
- PITT pass offense (0.13 PPA) vs. CIN pass defense (0.23 allowed) — edge CIN.
- PITT rush offense (0.18 PPA) vs. CIN rush defense (0.14 allowed) — edge PITT.
Drive-by-drive
PITT 6/11 scoring drives← own end zone →CIN 5/11 scoring drives
CINPUNT7 pl, 25 yds· own 25Q1
PITTINT7 pl, 54 yds· own 20Q1
CINTD4 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1
PITTFG10 pl, 48 yds· own 23Q1
CINTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
PITTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 14Q1
CINFG14 pl, 31 yds· own 38Q1
PITTPUNT6 pl, 7 yds· own 10Q2
CINMISS14 pl, 49 yds· own 44Q2
PITTFG4 pl, 45 yds· own 20Q2
PITTDOWNS5 pl, 7 yds· opp 49Q3
CINTD10 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q3
PITTPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q3
CINFG6 pl, 31 yds· opp 40Q3
PITTTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
CINPUNT5 pl, 26 yds· own 22Q3
PITTTD7 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q4
CINPUNT4 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q4
PITTTD7 pl, 94 yds· own 6Q4
CINPUNT5 pl, 27 yds· own 25Q4
PITTFG9 pl, 63 yds· own 20Q4
CINFUM3 pl, 10 yds· own 25Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
CIN up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,010 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
94%
CIN went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati?
Pittsburgh 28, Cincinnati 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (PITT) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had PITT pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.