Cincinnati Bearcats
Big 12··0-0
0 followers
Elo
1471
#73
SP+
4.5
#56
O50/D67
FPI
3.7
SRS
2.9
AP
#22
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 11 to play4.2 – 6.8
projected final record (now 0–0)
Exp. wins left
4.2
of 11 games
Bowl odds
17%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
71%
vs Colorado
Toughest
6%
vs Texas Tech
💬Cincinnati Board
Show discussion →Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Offense
Total yards / game
407.6#43
Yards / play
6.9#8
Passing yards / game
230.2#62
Rushing yards / game
177.5#42
First downs / game
19.6#83
3rd down %
38.7%#81
4th down %
72.0%#6
Time of possession
24:17#136
Defense
Yards allowed / game
399.1#93
Yards / play allowed
5.6#72
Pass yards allowed / game
220.4#69
Rush yards allowed / game
178.7#107
3rd down % allowed
41.0%#94
Sacks
22#89
Tackles for loss
55#116
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
-4#98
Takeaways
10#116
Giveaways
14#35
Penalties / game
7.1#108
Penalty yards / game
65.1#120
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Advanced analytics
Opponent-adjusted advanced stats aren't available for 2026 yet — they populate a few weeks into the season.
Schedule & Results
Wk 1vs
Boston CollegeSat-6.969%Wk 2vsWestern CarolinaSatWk 3vs
Miami (OH)Sat-5.265%Wk 4vs
Kansas StateSat+5.734%Wk 5@
ArizonaSat+11.121%Wk 7@
West VirginiaSat-4.864%Wk 8vs
Texas TechSat+21.06%Wk 9vs
UtahSat+17.89%Wk 10@
HoustonSat+4.038%Wk 11@
Iowa StateSat+8.726%Wk 12vs
ColoradoSat-7.571%Wk 13@
BYUSat+13.616%
Boston CollegeSat-6.969%Wk 2vsWestern CarolinaSatWk 3vsMiami (OH)Sat-5.265%Wk 4vsKansas StateSat+5.734%Wk 5@ArizonaSat+11.121%Wk 7@West VirginiaSat-4.864%Wk 8vsTexas TechSat+21.06%Wk 9vsUtahSat+17.89%Wk 10@HoustonSat+4.038%Wk 11@Iowa StateSat+8.726%Wk 12vsColoradoSat-7.571%Wk 13@BYUSat+13.616%2026 Recruiting Class
Commits
19
Avg stars
3.05
Avg rating
0.8604
1 4★18 3★
| Recruit | Pos | Stars | Rtg | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance Dawson#417 nat'l | DL | ★★★★★ | 0.8942 | Avon, OH |
| Jalen Williams#1158 nat'l | TE | ★★★★★ | 0.8678 | Bloomington, IN |
| Jaxon Newton#1396 nat'l | LB | ★★★★★ | 0.8633 | Oxford, AL |
| Luke Collins#1396 nat'l | IOL | ★★★★★ | 0.8633 | Columbus, OH |
| Dadrien Waller#1422 nat'l | WR | ★★★★★ | 0.8622 | Guntersville, AL |
| Heij Jackson#1422 nat'l | WR | ★★★★★ | 0.8622 | New Orleans, LA |
| Solomon Mathis#1240 nat'l | OT | ★★★★★ | 0.8606 | Hephzibah, GA |
| Jonathan Rulo#1245 nat'l | DL | ★★★★★ | 0.8600 | Belleville, IL |
| Jamarion McKinney#1500 nat'l | CB | ★★★★★ | 0.8600 | Greenville, SC |
| Luke Grover#1500 nat'l | OT | ★★★★★ | 0.8600 | Lewis Center, OH |
| Darrius Simmons#1500 nat'l | DL | ★★★★★ | 0.8600 | Havana, FL |
| Nathan Zappitelli#1615 nat'l | IOL | ★★★★★ | 0.8589 | Mentor, OH |
| Keegan Horn#1615 nat'l | EDGE | ★★★★★ | 0.8589 | Hueytown, AL |
| Xavier Starks#1656 nat'l | S | ★★★★★ | 0.8578 | Pinson, AL |
| Kameron Hurst#1722 nat'l | CB | ★★★★★ | 0.8556 | St. Louis, MO |
| Brooks Goodman#1722 nat'l | QB | ★★★★★ | 0.8556 | Roswell, GA |
| Adam Kirtley#1816 nat'l | LB | ★★★★★ | 0.8544 | Cincinnati, OH |
| Evan Weinberg#1871 nat'l | EDGE | ★★★★★ | 0.8522 | Springboro, OH |
| Austin Hoane#1870 nat'l | IOL | ★★★★★ | 0.8400 | Cookeville, TN |
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7-6 | 5-4 | 54% | 7.1 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 5-7 | 3-6 | 42% | 6.2 | -1.2 |
| 2023 | 3-9 | 1-8 | 25% | 5.0 | -2.0 |
| 2022 | 9-4 | 6-2 | 69% | 7.5 | +1.5 |
| 2021 | 13-1 | 9-0 | 93% | 10.9 | +2.1 |
| 2020 | 9-1 | 7-0 | 90% | 9.0 | -0.0 |
| 2019 | 11-3 | 7-2 | 79% | 9.1 | +1.9 |
| 2018 | 11-2 | 6-2 | 85% | 10.3 | +0.7 |
| 2017 | 4-8 | 2-6 | 33% | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 2016 | 4-8 | 1-7 | 33% | 4.2 | -0.2 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).