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Army vs. Notre Dame: Final Score & Recap

Sun, Nov 24, 12:00 AM

Army logo
Army
American Athletic· Elo 1661
1449
Final
Notre Dame logo
Notre Dame
FBS Independents· Elo 2115
Yankee StadiumNeutral site
1234T
ARMY070714
ND141414749
RecapNov 24

Notre Dame Turns the Bronx Into a Track Meet, 49-14

For one quarter the Black Knights belonged in the Bronx. Then the green jerseys started running, and they never stopped.

They came to the Bronx with a streak and a plan and a quarterback who runs downhill, and for one quarter Army even looked the part. Then Notre Dame turned Yankee Stadium into a track meet, and there was nothing the Black Knights could do but watch the green jerseys run by. Final: 49-14, and it wasn't even that close.

ND 49, Army 14
Final
Yankee Stadium
130 yds, 2 TD
Love
incl. a 68-yard score
139 yds, 2 TD
Daily
Army on the ground
68 yards
Longest play
Love, opening the 3rd

Notre Dame didn't wait. On the game's opening possession Riley Leonard found Jordan Faison for 28 yards and a touchdown with 10:24 still on the first-quarter clock, and four minutes later Leonard hit Jeremiyah Love from six. Two drives, two scores, and a crowd that had come to see a fistfight was already watching a sprint.

Give Army this: Bryson Daily would not quit. The Army quarterback churned for 139 yards on the ground and punched in a 4-yard score early in the second to make it 14-7, and for a heartbeat the option offense had its rhythm and the building had its noise back.

The hinge

WhenTeamScore
Q1 10:24Notre DameFaison 28 pass from Leonard
Q1 06:30Notre DameLove 6 pass from Leonard
Q2 13:53ArmyDaily 4 run
Q2 04:35Notre DameLove 14 run
Q2 00:26Notre DamePrice 2 run
Q3 14:44Notre DameLove 68 run
Q3 00:45Notre DamePrice 10 run
Q4 10:40Notre DameWilliams 58 run
Q4 00:22ArmyDaily 1 run
Touchdowns, in order
PlayerTeamLine
Riley LeonardNotre Dame148 pass yds, 2 TD
Jeremiyah LoveNotre Dame130 rush yds, 2 TD
Jadarian PriceNotre Dame2 rush TD
Bryson DailyArmy139 rush yds, 2 TD
Who did the damage

The game turned at the goal line, but not the way Army needed. Notre Dame had a first-and-goal inside the 5 late in the second and got greedy with it -- Love stuffed for a loss back to the 2, the drive dead, a rare empty trip. It should have been a lifeline. Instead Notre Dame just kept coming. Love ran in a 14-yarder, and with 26 seconds left in the half Jadarian Price scored from two. What looked like a one-score game at the break was 28-7, and the damage was done before the bands finished playing.

Then came the body blow. On the very first snap of the second half, Love took it 68 yards to the house -- one cut, one seam, gone. That is the whole story of the night in a single run: one offense moved on schedule and broke the long ones too, and the other lived snap-to-snap and never got loose. Price added a 10-yarder late in the third, Aneyas Williams ripped off a 58-yard touchdown in the fourth, and the rout had its own gravity.

Daily got his second score on a 1-yard plunge with 22 seconds left, a touchdown for the box score and nothing else. The arithmetic had been settled hours earlier, somewhere around the time Love crossed midfield untouched. Notre Dame finished what it started on every series that mattered; Army finished the one that didn't. Leonard threw two touchdowns and never had to do more. Love ran for 130 and two scores and looked like the best player on a field full of them. The Black Knights walked off the Bronx with their answers, and none of them were good.

Gridpex Model Prediction

Power rating (Elo)
ND 2115
ARMY 1661
Projected spread
ND -18.2
neutral site
Model pick
ND
91% to win
Market spread
ND -14.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
ND
3.7 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
91%
ND · market 83%

Our model blends Elo ratings (ND Elo 2115, ARMY Elo 1661) on a neutral field. That projects ND -18.2 (91% to win) 3.7 points of value on ND versus the market line of -14.5.

Win Probability

Hover over the chart to see play details
ND (top)ARMY (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ND 100%

Advanced Matchup — 2024

ARMY2024 season · higher-impact side highlightedND

Offense

0.32
PPA / play
0.30
51%
Success rate
46%
1.09
Explosiveness
1.28
4.47
Pts / opportunity
4.75
86%
Power success
74%

Defense

0.12
PPA allowed / play
0.02
43%
Success rate allowed
38%
1.21
Explosiveness allowed
1.13
15%
Havoc rate
19%
16%
Stuff rate
16%

Key matchups · Pro

  • ARMY pass offense (0.43 PPA) vs. ND pass defense (-0.07 allowed) — edge ARMY.
  • ARMY rush offense (0.30 PPA) vs. ND rush defense (0.09 allowed) — edge ARMY.
  • ND rush offense (0.29 PPA) vs. ARMY rush defense (0.14 allowed) — edge ND.

Drive-by-drive

ARMY 2/10 scoring drives← own end zone →ND 7/11 scoring drives
ARMYPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 26Q1
NDTD5 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q1
ARMYPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 7Q1
NDTD3 pl, 7 yds· opp 7Q1
ARMYTD12 pl, 75 yds· own 2Q1
NDDOWNS10 pl, 73 yds· own 25Q2
ARMYPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 2Q2
NDTD3 pl, 41 yds· opp 41Q2
ARMYPUNT3 pl, -13 yds· own 25Q2
NDTD8 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ2
ARMYFUM1 pl, 0 yds· own 6Q2
NDMISS4 pl, 14 yds· opp 44Q2
NDTD1 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q3
ARMYDOWNS7 pl, 19 yds· own 16Q3
NDMISS5 pl, 23 yds· opp 35Q3
ARMYDOWNS7 pl, 20 yds· own 37Q3
NDTD8 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q3
ARMYDOWNS11 pl, 49 yds· own 9Q3
NDTD1 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q4
ARMYTD17 pl, 75 yds· own 5Q4
NDEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 26Q4

Comparable Situations — historical outcomes

ND up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 274 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%
ND went on to win
A near-lock historically

FAQ

What was the final score of Army vs. Notre Dame?

Army 14, Notre Dame 49.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (ND) was correct.

Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.

🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take

Called it — I had ND pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.

Game thread

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Model estimates for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Data: CollegeFootballData.