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Texas State vs. Texas Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Sep 5, 7:30 PM
DKR-Texas Memorial StadiumESPN
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
TEX 1926
TXST 1606
Projected spread
TEX -15.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
TEX
88% to win
Market spread
TEX -30.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
TXST
14.7 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
88%
TEX (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (TEX Elo 1926, TXST Elo 1606) plus home-field advantage. That projects TEX -15.8 (88% to win) — 14.7 points of value on TXST versus the market line of -30.5.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelTXST 12% · TEX 88%
Pick: TEX
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
TXST2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedTEX
Offense
0.33
PPA / play
0.1846%
Success rate
40%1.36
Explosiveness
1.374.42
Pts / opportunity
3.5267%
Power success
63%Defense
0.18
PPA allowed / play
0.1041%
Success rate allowed
39%1.32
Explosiveness allowed
1.1816%
Havoc rate
18%24%
Stuff rate
21%Key matchups · Pro
- TXST rush offense (0.28 PPA) vs. TEX rush defense (0.01 allowed) — edge TXST.
- TXST pass offense (0.42 PPA) vs. TEX pass defense (0.20 allowed) — edge TXST.
- TEX pass offense (0.29 PPA) vs. TXST pass defense (0.30 allowed) — edge TXST.
FAQ
Who will win Texas State vs. Texas?
Gridpex's model favors Texas with a 88% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Texas State vs. Texas?
The model projects Texas by 15.8.
What time is Texas State vs. Texas and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 5, 7:30 PM on ESPN, at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Texas at 88% to win, projecting Texas by 15.8.