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LSU vs. Ole Miss Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Sep 19, 11:30 PM
Vaught-Hemingway StadiumABCConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MISS 2009
LSU 1675
Projected spread
MISS -15.9
incl. home edge
Model pick
MISS
88% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
88%
MISS (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (MISS Elo 2009, LSU Elo 1675) plus home-field advantage. That projects MISS -15.9 (88% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelLSU 12% · MISS 88%
Pick: MISS
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
LSU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedMISS
Offense
0.06
PPA / play
0.3039%
Success rate
48%1.22
Explosiveness
1.293.35
Pts / opportunity
4.4464%
Power success
78%Defense
0.08
PPA allowed / play
0.1339%
Success rate allowed
40%1.24
Explosiveness allowed
1.2917%
Havoc rate
17%25%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- MISS pass offense (0.46 PPA) vs. LSU pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge MISS.
- LSU rush offense (0.01 PPA) vs. MISS rush defense (0.19 allowed) — edge MISS.
- MISS rush offense (0.15 PPA) vs. LSU rush defense (0.01 allowed) — edge MISS.
FAQ
Who will win LSU vs. Ole Miss?
Gridpex's model favors Ole Miss with a 88% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for LSU vs. Ole Miss?
The model projects Ole Miss by 15.9.
What time is LSU vs. Ole Miss and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 11:30 PM on ABC, at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Ole Miss at 88% to win, projecting Ole Miss by 15.9.