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Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss Prediction, Odds & Pick
Fri, Nov 27, 5:00 PM
Vaught-Hemingway StadiumABCConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MISS 2009
MSST 1468
Projected spread
MISS -23.1
incl. home edge
Model pick
MISS
96% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
96%
MISS (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (MISS Elo 2009, MSST Elo 1468) plus home-field advantage. That projects MISS -23.1 (96% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelMSST 4% · MISS 96%
Pick: MISS
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
MSST2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedMISS
Offense
0.14
PPA / play
0.3042%
Success rate
48%1.29
Explosiveness
1.294.41
Pts / opportunity
4.4472%
Power success
78%Defense
0.22
PPA allowed / play
0.1344%
Success rate allowed
40%1.27
Explosiveness allowed
1.2914%
Havoc rate
17%14%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- MISS pass offense (0.46 PPA) vs. MSST pass defense (0.30 allowed) — edge MISS.
- MSST rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. MISS rush defense (0.19 allowed) — edge MISS.
- MSST pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. MISS pass defense (0.13 allowed) — edge MSST.
FAQ
Who will win Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss?
Gridpex's model favors Ole Miss with a 96% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss?
The model projects Ole Miss by 23.1.
What time is Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss and what channel is it on?
Fri, Nov 27, 5:00 PM on ABC, at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Ole Miss at 96% to win, projecting Ole Miss by 23.1.