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Notre Dame vs. BYU Prediction, Odds & Pick
Time TBD
LaVell Edwards Stadium
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
BYU 1750
ND 2243
Projected spread
BYU +11.1
incl. home edge
Model pick
ND
80% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
20%
BYU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (BYU Elo 1750, ND Elo 2243) plus home-field advantage. That projects BYU +11.1 (20% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelND 80% · BYU 20%
Pick: ND
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
ND2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedBYU
Offense
0.36
PPA / play
0.2249%
Success rate
46%1.44
Explosiveness
1.194.79
Pts / opportunity
4.0362%
Power success
82%Defense
0.04
PPA allowed / play
0.0936%
Success rate allowed
39%1.28
Explosiveness allowed
1.2218%
Havoc rate
16%18%
Stuff rate
21%Key matchups · Pro
- ND pass offense (0.45 PPA) vs. BYU pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge ND.
- BYU pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. ND pass defense (0.09 allowed) — edge BYU.
- ND rush offense (0.25 PPA) vs. BYU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge ND.
FAQ
Who will win Notre Dame vs. BYU?
Gridpex's model favors Notre Dame with a 80% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Notre Dame vs. BYU?
The model projects Notre Dame by 11.1.
What time is Notre Dame vs. BYU and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at LaVell Edwards Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Notre Dame at 80% to win, projecting Notre Dame by 11.1.