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SMU vs. Louisville Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM
L&N Federal Credit Union StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
LOU 1749
SMU 1852
Projected spread
LOU PK
incl. home edge
Model pick
SMU
50% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
50%
LOU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (LOU Elo 1749, SMU Elo 1852) plus home-field advantage. That projects LOU PK (50% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelSMU 50% · LOU 50%
Pick: SMU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
SMU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedLOU
Offense
0.23
PPA / play
0.1543%
Success rate
45%1.36
Explosiveness
1.223.89
Pts / opportunity
3.6279%
Power success
65%Defense
0.03
PPA allowed / play
0.0540%
Success rate allowed
37%1.18
Explosiveness allowed
1.1819%
Havoc rate
17%22%
Stuff rate
20%Key matchups · Pro
- SMU pass offense (0.40 PPA) vs. LOU pass defense (0.06 allowed) — edge SMU.
- LOU rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. SMU rush defense (-0.08 allowed) — edge LOU.
- LOU pass offense (0.13 PPA) vs. SMU pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge SMU.
FAQ
Who will win SMU vs. Louisville?
Gridpex's model favors SMU with a 50% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for SMU vs. Louisville?
The model projects SMU by 0.0.
What time is SMU vs. Louisville and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM, at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this SMU at 50% to win, projecting SMU by 0.0.