← All games
Missouri State vs. SMU Prediction, Odds & Pick
Time TBD
Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
SMU 1852
MOST 1328
Projected spread
SMU -25.1
incl. home edge
Model pick
SMU
97% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
97%
SMU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (SMU Elo 1852, MOST Elo 1328) plus home-field advantage. That projects SMU -25.1 (97% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelMOST 3% · SMU 97%
Pick: SMU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
MOST2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedSMU
Offense
0.18
PPA / play
0.2339%
Success rate
43%1.50
Explosiveness
1.363.69
Pts / opportunity
3.8961%
Power success
79%Defense
0.23
PPA allowed / play
0.0343%
Success rate allowed
40%1.31
Explosiveness allowed
1.1815%
Havoc rate
19%20%
Stuff rate
22%Key matchups · Pro
- MOST pass offense (0.34 PPA) vs. SMU pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge MOST.
- MOST rush offense (0.03 PPA) vs. SMU rush defense (-0.08 allowed) — edge MOST.
- SMU pass offense (0.40 PPA) vs. MOST pass defense (0.33 allowed) — edge SMU.
FAQ
Who will win Missouri State vs. SMU?
Gridpex's model favors SMU with a 97% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Missouri State vs. SMU?
The model projects SMU by 25.1.
What time is Missouri State vs. SMU and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this SMU at 97% to win, projecting SMU by 25.1.