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SMU vs. Syracuse Prediction, Odds & Pick
Time TBD
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
SYR 1182
SMU 1852
Projected spread
SYR +24.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
SMU
96% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
4%
SYR (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (SYR Elo 1182, SMU Elo 1852) plus home-field advantage. That projects SYR +24.2 (4% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelSMU 96% · SYR 4%
Pick: SMU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
SMU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedSYR
Offense
0.23
PPA / play
0.0343%
Success rate
38%1.36
Explosiveness
1.213.89
Pts / opportunity
2.9879%
Power success
70%Defense
0.03
PPA allowed / play
0.2840%
Success rate allowed
45%1.18
Explosiveness allowed
1.3219%
Havoc rate
13%22%
Stuff rate
21%Key matchups · Pro
- SYR pass offense (0.10 PPA) vs. SMU pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge SMU.
- SYR rush offense (0.00 PPA) vs. SMU rush defense (-0.08 allowed) — edge SYR.
- SMU pass offense (0.40 PPA) vs. SYR pass defense (0.44 allowed) — edge SYR.
FAQ
Who will win SMU vs. Syracuse?
Gridpex's model favors SMU with a 96% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for SMU vs. Syracuse?
The model projects SMU by 24.2.
What time is SMU vs. Syracuse and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at JMA Wireless Dome.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this SMU at 96% to win, projecting SMU by 24.2.