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Virginia Tech vs. SMU Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Nov 7, 12:00 AM
Gerald J. Ford StadiumESPNConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
SMU 1852
VT 1382
Projected spread
SMU -23.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
SMU
96% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
96%
SMU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (SMU Elo 1852, VT Elo 1382) plus home-field advantage. That projects SMU -23.8 (96% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelVT 4% · SMU 96%
Pick: SMU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
VT2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedSMU
Offense
0.17
PPA / play
0.2342%
Success rate
43%1.25
Explosiveness
1.363.68
Pts / opportunity
3.8970%
Power success
79%Defense
0.28
PPA allowed / play
0.0346%
Success rate allowed
40%1.26
Explosiveness allowed
1.1813%
Havoc rate
19%16%
Stuff rate
22%Key matchups · Pro
- VT rush offense (0.20 PPA) vs. SMU rush defense (-0.08 allowed) — edge VT.
- SMU rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. VT rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge VT.
- VT pass offense (0.15 PPA) vs. SMU pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge SMU.
FAQ
Who will win Virginia Tech vs. SMU?
Gridpex's model favors SMU with a 96% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Virginia Tech vs. SMU?
The model projects SMU by 23.8.
What time is Virginia Tech vs. SMU and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 7, 12:00 AM on ESPN, at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this SMU at 96% to win, projecting SMU by 23.8.