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Boston College vs. Notre Dame Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Nov 14, 8:30 PM
Notre Dame StadiumNBC
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ND 2243
BC 1359
Projected spread
ND -36.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
ND
100% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
100%
ND (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (ND Elo 2243, BC Elo 1359) plus home-field advantage. That projects ND -36.4 (100% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelBC 0% · ND 100%
Pick: ND
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
BC2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedND
Offense
0.16
PPA / play
0.3642%
Success rate
49%1.21
Explosiveness
1.443.39
Pts / opportunity
4.7980%
Power success
62%Defense
0.23
PPA allowed / play
0.0443%
Success rate allowed
36%1.39
Explosiveness allowed
1.2812%
Havoc rate
18%21%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- BC pass offense (0.25 PPA) vs. ND pass defense (0.09 allowed) — edge BC.
- ND rush offense (0.25 PPA) vs. BC rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge ND.
- ND pass offense (0.45 PPA) vs. BC pass defense (0.39 allowed) — edge ND.
FAQ
Who will win Boston College vs. Notre Dame?
Gridpex's model favors Notre Dame with a 100% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Boston College vs. Notre Dame?
The model projects Notre Dame by 36.4.
What time is Boston College vs. Notre Dame and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 14, 8:30 PM on NBC, at Notre Dame Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Notre Dame at 100% to win, projecting Notre Dame by 36.4.