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SMU vs. Stanford Prediction, Odds & Pick
Time TBD
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
STAN 1335
SMU 1852
Projected spread
STAN +20.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
SMU
94% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
6%
STAN (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (STAN Elo 1335, SMU Elo 1852) plus home-field advantage. That projects STAN +20.8 (6% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelSMU 94% · STAN 6%
Pick: SMU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
SMU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedSTAN
Offense
0.23
PPA / play
0.0643%
Success rate
36%1.36
Explosiveness
1.203.89
Pts / opportunity
3.0279%
Power success
82%Defense
0.03
PPA allowed / play
0.1740%
Success rate allowed
42%1.18
Explosiveness allowed
1.2919%
Havoc rate
15%22%
Stuff rate
17%Key matchups · Pro
- SMU rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. STAN rush defense (-0.02 allowed) — edge SMU.
- SMU pass offense (0.40 PPA) vs. STAN pass defense (0.34 allowed) — edge SMU.
- STAN rush offense (-0.03 PPA) vs. SMU rush defense (-0.08 allowed) — edge STAN.
FAQ
Who will win SMU vs. Stanford?
Gridpex's model favors SMU with a 94% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for SMU vs. Stanford?
The model projects SMU by 20.8.
What time is SMU vs. Stanford and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Stanford Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this SMU at 94% to win, projecting SMU by 20.8.