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Boise State vs. Oregon Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Sep 5, 7:30 PM
Autzen StadiumCBS
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ORE 2071
BOIS 1594
Projected spread
ORE -23.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
ORE
96% to win
Market spread
ORE -24.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
96%
ORE · market 93%
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (ORE Elo 2071, BOIS Elo 1594) plus home-field advantage. That projects ORE -23.5 (96% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelBOIS 4% · ORE 96%
Market consensusBOIS 7% · ORE 93%
Pick: ORE
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
BOIS2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedORE
Offense
0.20
PPA / play
0.3042%
Success rate
48%1.28
Explosiveness
1.323.66
Pts / opportunity
4.1079%
Power success
71%Defense
0.12
PPA allowed / play
0.0536%
Success rate allowed
36%1.42
Explosiveness allowed
1.2817%
Havoc rate
18%19%
Stuff rate
17%Key matchups · Pro
- ORE pass offense (0.42 PPA) vs. BOIS pass defense (0.08 allowed) — edge ORE.
- BOIS pass offense (0.27 PPA) vs. ORE pass defense (0.15 allowed) — edge BOIS.
- BOIS rush offense (0.16 PPA) vs. ORE rush defense (0.05 allowed) — edge BOIS.
FAQ
Who will win Boise State vs. Oregon?
Gridpex's model favors Oregon with a 96% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Boise State vs. Oregon?
The model projects Oregon by 23.5.
What time is Boise State vs. Oregon and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 5, 7:30 PM on CBS, at Autzen Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Oregon at 96% to win, projecting Oregon by 23.5. I'm close to the market here. Who's got an angle the model's missing?