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Buffalo vs. Penn State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Sep 19, 4:00 PM
Beaver StadiumBTN
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
PSU 1954
BUF 1298
Projected spread
PSU -28.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
PSU
98% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
98%
PSU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (PSU Elo 1954, BUF Elo 1298) plus home-field advantage. That projects PSU -28.3 (98% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelBUF 2% · PSU 98%
Pick: PSU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
BUF2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedPSU
Offense
0.07
PPA / play
0.2339%
Success rate
46%1.20
Explosiveness
1.203.50
Pts / opportunity
4.3269%
Power success
76%Defense
0.12
PPA allowed / play
0.1239%
Success rate allowed
41%1.23
Explosiveness allowed
1.1715%
Havoc rate
16%17%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- PSU rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. BUF rush defense (0.05 allowed) — edge PSU.
- BUF rush offense (-0.03 PPA) vs. PSU rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge PSU.
- PSU pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. BUF pass defense (0.23 allowed) — edge PSU.
FAQ
Who will win Buffalo vs. Penn State?
Gridpex's model favors Penn State with a 98% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Buffalo vs. Penn State?
The model projects Penn State by 28.3.
What time is Buffalo vs. Penn State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 4:00 PM on BTN, at Beaver Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Penn State at 98% to win, projecting Penn State by 28.3.