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Illinois vs. Ohio State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Time TBD
Ohio StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
OSU 2138
ILL 1595
Projected spread
OSU -21.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
OSU
95% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
95%
OSU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (OSU Elo 2138, ILL Elo 1595) plus home-field advantage. That projects OSU -21.6 (95% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelILL 5% · OSU 95%
Pick: OSU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
ILL2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedOSU
Offense
0.21
PPA / play
0.3148%
Success rate
52%1.17
Explosiveness
1.164.21
Pts / opportunity
4.8373%
Power success
73%Defense
0.20
PPA allowed / play
-0.0245%
Success rate allowed
34%1.19
Explosiveness allowed
1.0715%
Havoc rate
16%19%
Stuff rate
23%Key matchups · Pro
- ILL pass offense (0.41 PPA) vs. OSU pass defense (0.05 allowed) — edge ILL.
- OSU pass offense (0.54 PPA) vs. ILL pass defense (0.32 allowed) — edge OSU.
- ILL rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. OSU rush defense (-0.09 allowed) — edge ILL.
FAQ
Who will win Illinois vs. Ohio State?
Gridpex's model favors Ohio State with a 95% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Illinois vs. Ohio State?
The model projects Ohio State by 21.6.
What time is Illinois vs. Ohio State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Ohio Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Ohio State at 95% to win, projecting Ohio State by 21.6.