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Washington vs. USC Prediction, Odds & Pick
Time TBD
Los Angeles Memorial ColiseumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
USC 1871
WASH 1866
Projected spread
USC -1.7
incl. home edge
Model pick
USC
55% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
55%
USC (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (USC Elo 1871, WASH Elo 1866) plus home-field advantage. That projects USC -1.7 (55% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelWASH 45% · USC 55%
Pick: USC
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
WASH2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedUSC
Offense
0.29
PPA / play
0.3349%
Success rate
49%1.23
Explosiveness
1.324.58
Pts / opportunity
4.6677%
Power success
75%Defense
0.08
PPA allowed / play
0.1639%
Success rate allowed
45%1.18
Explosiveness allowed
1.1715%
Havoc rate
16%16%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- USC pass offense (0.52 PPA) vs. WASH pass defense (0.20 allowed) — edge USC.
- USC rush offense (0.18 PPA) vs. WASH rush defense (-0.03 allowed) — edge USC.
- WASH pass offense (0.38 PPA) vs. USC pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge WASH.
FAQ
Who will win Washington vs. USC?
Gridpex's model favors USC with a 55% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Washington vs. USC?
The model projects USC by 1.7.
What time is Washington vs. USC and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this USC at 55% to win, projecting USC by 1.7.