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USC vs. Penn State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Time TBD
Beaver StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
PSU 1954
USC 1871
Projected spread
PSU -4.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
PSU
63% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
63%
PSU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (PSU Elo 1954, USC Elo 1871) plus home-field advantage. That projects PSU -4.6 (63% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelUSC 37% · PSU 63%
Pick: PSU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
USC2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedPSU
Offense
0.33
PPA / play
0.2349%
Success rate
46%1.32
Explosiveness
1.204.66
Pts / opportunity
4.3275%
Power success
76%Defense
0.16
PPA allowed / play
0.1245%
Success rate allowed
41%1.17
Explosiveness allowed
1.1716%
Havoc rate
16%18%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- USC pass offense (0.52 PPA) vs. PSU pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge USC.
- PSU pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. USC pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge PSU.
- PSU rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. USC rush defense (0.13 allowed) — edge PSU.
FAQ
Who will win USC vs. Penn State?
Gridpex's model favors Penn State with a 63% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for USC vs. Penn State?
The model projects Penn State by 4.6.
What time is USC vs. Penn State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Beaver Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Penn State at 63% to win, projecting Penn State by 4.6.