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Oregon vs. Illinois Prediction, Odds & Pick
Time TBD
Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)Conference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ILL 1595
ORE 2071
Projected spread
ILL +13.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
ORE
84% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
16%
ILL (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (ILL Elo 1595, ORE Elo 2071) plus home-field advantage. That projects ILL +13.3 (16% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelORE 84% · ILL 16%
Pick: ORE
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
ORE2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedILL
Offense
0.30
PPA / play
0.2148%
Success rate
48%1.32
Explosiveness
1.174.10
Pts / opportunity
4.2171%
Power success
73%Defense
0.05
PPA allowed / play
0.2036%
Success rate allowed
45%1.28
Explosiveness allowed
1.1918%
Havoc rate
15%17%
Stuff rate
19%Key matchups · Pro
- ILL pass offense (0.41 PPA) vs. ORE pass defense (0.15 allowed) — edge ILL.
- ORE rush offense (0.23 PPA) vs. ILL rush defense (0.07 allowed) — edge ORE.
- ORE pass offense (0.42 PPA) vs. ILL pass defense (0.32 allowed) — edge ORE.
FAQ
Who will win Oregon vs. Illinois?
Gridpex's model favors Oregon with a 84% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Oregon vs. Illinois?
The model projects Oregon by 13.3.
What time is Oregon vs. Illinois and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL).
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Oregon at 84% to win, projecting Oregon by 13.3.