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USC vs. Wisconsin Prediction, Odds & Pick
Time TBD
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WIS 1502
USC 1871
Projected spread
WIS +16
incl. home edge
Model pick
USC
88% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
12%
WIS (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (WIS Elo 1502, USC Elo 1871) plus home-field advantage. That projects WIS +16 (12% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelUSC 88% · WIS 12%
Pick: USC
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
USC2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedWIS
Offense
0.33
PPA / play
0.0149%
Success rate
35%1.32
Explosiveness
1.234.66
Pts / opportunity
2.2875%
Power success
66%Defense
0.16
PPA allowed / play
0.1945%
Success rate allowed
45%1.17
Explosiveness allowed
1.1716%
Havoc rate
13%18%
Stuff rate
22%Key matchups · Pro
- USC pass offense (0.52 PPA) vs. WIS pass defense (0.33 allowed) — edge USC.
- WIS pass offense (0.03 PPA) vs. USC pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge USC.
- USC rush offense (0.18 PPA) vs. WIS rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge USC.
FAQ
Who will win USC vs. Wisconsin?
Gridpex's model favors USC with a 88% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for USC vs. Wisconsin?
The model projects USC by 16.0.
What time is USC vs. Wisconsin and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Camp Randall Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this USC at 88% to win, projecting USC by 16.0.