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Michigan vs. Oregon Prediction, Odds & Pick
Time TBD
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ORE 2071
MICH 1786
Projected spread
ORE -15
incl. home edge
Model pick
ORE
87% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
87%
ORE (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (ORE Elo 2071, MICH Elo 1786) plus home-field advantage. That projects ORE -15 (87% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelMICH 13% · ORE 87%
Pick: ORE
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
MICH2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedORE
Offense
0.19
PPA / play
0.3044%
Success rate
48%1.17
Explosiveness
1.323.64
Pts / opportunity
4.1077%
Power success
71%Defense
0.12
PPA allowed / play
0.0542%
Success rate allowed
36%1.13
Explosiveness allowed
1.2817%
Havoc rate
18%18%
Stuff rate
17%Key matchups · Pro
- ORE pass offense (0.42 PPA) vs. MICH pass defense (0.22 allowed) — edge ORE.
- MICH rush offense (0.23 PPA) vs. ORE rush defense (0.05 allowed) — edge MICH.
- ORE rush offense (0.23 PPA) vs. MICH rush defense (0.07 allowed) — edge ORE.
FAQ
Who will win Michigan vs. Oregon?
Gridpex's model favors Oregon with a 87% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Michigan vs. Oregon?
The model projects Oregon by 15.0.
What time is Michigan vs. Oregon and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Autzen Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Oregon at 87% to win, projecting Oregon by 15.0.