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Nebraska vs. Iowa Prediction, Odds & Pick
Fri, Nov 27, 5:00 PM
Kinnick StadiumCBSConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
IOWA 1937
NEB 1558
Projected spread
IOWA -16.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
IOWA
89% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
89%
IOWA (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (IOWA Elo 1937, NEB Elo 1558) plus home-field advantage. That projects IOWA -16.6 (89% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelNEB 11% · IOWA 89%
Pick: IOWA
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
NEB2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedIOWA
Offense
0.16
PPA / play
0.1746%
Success rate
44%1.09
Explosiveness
1.123.93
Pts / opportunity
4.4476%
Power success
81%Defense
0.21
PPA allowed / play
0.0843%
Success rate allowed
39%1.27
Explosiveness allowed
1.1314%
Havoc rate
17%16%
Stuff rate
19%Key matchups · Pro
- IOWA rush offense (0.19 PPA) vs. NEB rush defense (0.25 allowed) — edge NEB.
- NEB pass offense (0.22 PPA) vs. IOWA pass defense (0.16 allowed) — edge NEB.
- IOWA pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. NEB pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge IOWA.
FAQ
Who will win Nebraska vs. Iowa?
Gridpex's model favors Iowa with a 89% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Nebraska vs. Iowa?
The model projects Iowa by 16.6.
What time is Nebraska vs. Iowa and what channel is it on?
Fri, Nov 27, 5:00 PM on CBS, at Kinnick Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Iowa at 89% to win, projecting Iowa by 16.6.