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Michigan vs. Ohio State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Nov 28, 5:00 PM
Ohio StadiumFOXConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
OSU 2138
MICH 1786
Projected spread
OSU -18.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
OSU
91% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
91%
OSU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (OSU Elo 2138, MICH Elo 1786) plus home-field advantage. That projects OSU -18.5 (91% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelMICH 9% · OSU 91%
Pick: OSU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
MICH2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedOSU
Offense
0.19
PPA / play
0.3144%
Success rate
52%1.17
Explosiveness
1.163.64
Pts / opportunity
4.8377%
Power success
73%Defense
0.12
PPA allowed / play
-0.0242%
Success rate allowed
34%1.13
Explosiveness allowed
1.0717%
Havoc rate
16%18%
Stuff rate
23%Key matchups · Pro
- OSU pass offense (0.54 PPA) vs. MICH pass defense (0.22 allowed) — edge OSU.
- MICH rush offense (0.23 PPA) vs. OSU rush defense (-0.09 allowed) — edge MICH.
- MICH pass offense (0.20 PPA) vs. OSU pass defense (0.05 allowed) — edge MICH.
FAQ
Who will win Michigan vs. Ohio State?
Gridpex's model favors Ohio State with a 91% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Michigan vs. Ohio State?
The model projects Ohio State by 18.5.
What time is Michigan vs. Ohio State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 28, 5:00 PM on FOX, at Ohio Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Ohio State at 91% to win, projecting Ohio State by 18.5.