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Washington vs. Oregon Prediction, Odds & Pick
Time TBD
Autzen StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ORE 2071
WASH 1866
Projected spread
ORE -10.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
ORE
78% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
78%
ORE (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (ORE Elo 2071, WASH Elo 1866) plus home-field advantage. That projects ORE -10.2 (78% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelWASH 22% · ORE 78%
Pick: ORE
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
WASH2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedORE
Offense
0.29
PPA / play
0.3049%
Success rate
48%1.23
Explosiveness
1.324.58
Pts / opportunity
4.1077%
Power success
71%Defense
0.08
PPA allowed / play
0.0539%
Success rate allowed
36%1.18
Explosiveness allowed
1.2815%
Havoc rate
18%16%
Stuff rate
17%Key matchups · Pro
- ORE rush offense (0.23 PPA) vs. WASH rush defense (-0.03 allowed) — edge ORE.
- WASH pass offense (0.38 PPA) vs. ORE pass defense (0.15 allowed) — edge WASH.
- ORE pass offense (0.42 PPA) vs. WASH pass defense (0.20 allowed) — edge ORE.
FAQ
Who will win Washington vs. Oregon?
Gridpex's model favors Oregon with a 78% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Washington vs. Oregon?
The model projects Oregon by 10.2.
What time is Washington vs. Oregon and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Autzen Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Oregon at 78% to win, projecting Oregon by 10.2.