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USC vs. UCLA Prediction, Odds & Pick
Time TBD
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
UCLA 1322
USC 1871
Projected spread
UCLA +21.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
USC
94% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
6%
UCLA (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (UCLA Elo 1322, USC Elo 1871) plus home-field advantage. That projects UCLA +21.6 (6% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelUSC 94% · UCLA 6%
Pick: USC
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
USC2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedUCLA
Offense
0.33
PPA / play
0.1249%
Success rate
42%1.32
Explosiveness
1.174.66
Pts / opportunity
2.9875%
Power success
65%Defense
0.16
PPA allowed / play
0.2545%
Success rate allowed
50%1.17
Explosiveness allowed
1.1216%
Havoc rate
12%18%
Stuff rate
14%Key matchups · Pro
- USC pass offense (0.52 PPA) vs. UCLA pass defense (0.33 allowed) — edge USC.
- UCLA pass offense (0.09 PPA) vs. USC pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge USC.
- UCLA rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. USC rush defense (0.13 allowed) — edge UCLA.
FAQ
Who will win USC vs. UCLA?
Gridpex's model favors USC with a 94% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for USC vs. UCLA?
The model projects USC by 21.6.
What time is USC vs. UCLA and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Rose Bowl.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this USC at 94% to win, projecting USC by 21.6.