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Texas State vs. San Diego State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sun, Oct 4, 2:30 AM
Snapdragon StadiumThe CW NetworkConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
SDSU 1528
TXST 1606
Projected spread
SDSU -3.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
SDSU
60% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
60%
SDSU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (SDSU Elo 1528, TXST Elo 1606) plus home-field advantage. That projects SDSU -3.4 (60% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelTXST 40% · SDSU 60%
Pick: SDSU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
TXST2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedSDSU
Offense
0.33
PPA / play
0.1346%
Success rate
42%1.36
Explosiveness
1.184.42
Pts / opportunity
3.5167%
Power success
80%Defense
0.18
PPA allowed / play
-0.0141%
Success rate allowed
35%1.32
Explosiveness allowed
1.1816%
Havoc rate
15%24%
Stuff rate
16%Key matchups · Pro
- TXST pass offense (0.42 PPA) vs. SDSU pass defense (-0.04 allowed) — edge TXST.
- TXST rush offense (0.28 PPA) vs. SDSU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge TXST.
- SDSU pass offense (0.09 PPA) vs. TXST pass defense (0.30 allowed) — edge TXST.
FAQ
Who will win Texas State vs. San Diego State?
Gridpex's model favors San Diego State with a 60% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Texas State vs. San Diego State?
The model projects San Diego State by 3.4.
What time is Texas State vs. San Diego State and what channel is it on?
Sun, Oct 4, 2:30 AM on The CW Network, at Snapdragon Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this San Diego State at 60% to win, projecting San Diego State by 3.4.