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Kent State vs. Western Michigan Prediction, Odds & Pick
Time TBD
Waldo StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WMU 1546
KENT 1001
Projected spread
WMU -22.1
incl. home edge
Model pick
WMU
95% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
95%
WMU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (WMU Elo 1546, KENT Elo 1001) plus home-field advantage. That projects WMU -22.1 (95% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelKENT 5% · WMU 95%
Pick: WMU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
KENT2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedWMU
Offense
0.09
PPA / play
0.1236%
Success rate
43%1.38
Explosiveness
1.053.42
Pts / opportunity
3.3563%
Power success
76%Defense
0.19
PPA allowed / play
0.0643%
Success rate allowed
37%1.29
Explosiveness allowed
1.2514%
Havoc rate
17%18%
Stuff rate
17%Key matchups · Pro
- KENT pass offense (0.29 PPA) vs. WMU pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge KENT.
- WMU pass offense (0.10 PPA) vs. KENT pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge KENT.
- KENT rush offense (-0.02 PPA) vs. WMU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge WMU.
FAQ
Who will win Kent State vs. Western Michigan?
Gridpex's model favors Western Michigan with a 95% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Kent State vs. Western Michigan?
The model projects Western Michigan by 22.1.
What time is Kent State vs. Western Michigan and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Waldo Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Western Michigan at 95% to win, projecting Western Michigan by 22.1.