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Arkansas State vs. Louisiana Prediction, Odds & Pick
Time TBD
Cajun FieldConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
UL 1334
ARST 1317
Projected spread
UL -2
incl. home edge
Model pick
UL
56% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
56%
UL (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (UL Elo 1334, ARST Elo 1317) plus home-field advantage. That projects UL -2 (56% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelARST 44% · UL 56%
Pick: UL
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
ARST2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedUL
Offense
0.09
PPA / play
0.1242%
Success rate
39%1.16
Explosiveness
1.213.31
Pts / opportunity
3.4570%
Power success
71%Defense
0.19
PPA allowed / play
0.1943%
Success rate allowed
46%1.29
Explosiveness allowed
1.2016%
Havoc rate
14%19%
Stuff rate
17%Key matchups · Pro
- ARST rush offense (-0.01 PPA) vs. UL rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge UL.
- UL pass offense (0.15 PPA) vs. ARST pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge ARST.
- ARST pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. UL pass defense (0.27 allowed) — edge UL.
FAQ
Who will win Arkansas State vs. Louisiana?
Gridpex's model favors Louisiana with a 56% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Arkansas State vs. Louisiana?
The model projects Louisiana by 2.0.
What time is Arkansas State vs. Louisiana and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Cajun Field.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Louisiana at 56% to win, projecting Louisiana by 2.0.