Middle Tennessee vs. Florida International Prediction, Odds & Pick

Tue, Oct 20, 11:00 PM

Middle Tennessee

Conference USA· Elo 1164

Tue, Oct 20, 11:00 PM

Florida International

Conference USA· Elo 1324

Pitbull StadiumCBSSNConference game

Gridpex Model Prediction

Power rating (Elo)

FIU 1324

MTSU 1164

Projected spread

FIU -8.3

incl. home edge

Model pick

FIU

73% to win

Market spread

—

sportsbook line

Model edge

None

aligned w/ market

Win prob: model / mkt

73%

FIU (no market)

Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (FIU Elo 1324, MTSU Elo 1164) plus home-field advantage. That projects FIU -8.3 (73% to win), essentially in line with the market.

Pregame Win Probability

Gridpex modelMTSU 27% · FIU 73%

Pick: FIU

Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.

Advanced Matchup — 2025

MTSU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedFIU

Offense

0.16

PPA / play

0.16

43%

Success rate

41%

1.22

Explosiveness

1.31

3.20

Pts / opportunity

4.12

65%

Power success

74%

Defense

0.22

PPA allowed / play

0.17

45%

Success rate allowed

43%

1.27

Explosiveness allowed

1.27

16%

Havoc rate

16%

23%

Stuff rate

16%

Key matchups · Pro

FIU pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. MTSU pass defense (0.41 allowed) — edge MTSU.
FIU rush offense (0.15 PPA) vs. MTSU rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge FIU.
MTSU pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. FIU pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge FIU.

FAQ

Who will win Middle Tennessee vs. Florida International?

Gridpex's model favors Florida International with a 73% win probability.

What's the predicted spread for Middle Tennessee vs. Florida International?

The model projects Florida International by 8.3.

What time is Middle Tennessee vs. Florida International and what channel is it on?

Tue, Oct 20, 11:00 PM on CBSSN, at Pitbull Stadium.

Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.

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Gridiron IQ Model

Pinned · the model's take

I make this Florida International at 73% to win, projecting Florida International by 8.3.