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Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston Prediction, Odds & Pick
Thu, Oct 15, 12:00 AM
Elliott T. Bowers StadiumESPN2Conference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
SHSU 994
WKU 1408
Projected spread
SHSU +21.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
WKU
94% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
6%
SHSU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (SHSU Elo 994, WKU Elo 1408) plus home-field advantage. That projects SHSU +21.2 (6% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelWKU 94% · SHSU 6%
Pick: WKU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
WKU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedSHSU
Offense
0.16
PPA / play
0.0143%
Success rate
37%1.24
Explosiveness
1.244.21
Pts / opportunity
2.7981%
Power success
66%Defense
0.11
PPA allowed / play
0.2237%
Success rate allowed
48%1.34
Explosiveness allowed
1.2416%
Havoc rate
14%22%
Stuff rate
17%Key matchups · Pro
- SHSU pass offense (0.01 PPA) vs. WKU pass defense (0.16 allowed) — edge WKU.
- WKU pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. SHSU pass defense (0.36 allowed) — edge SHSU.
- WKU rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. SHSU rush defense (0.15 allowed) — edge SHSU.
FAQ
Who will win Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston?
Gridpex's model favors Western Kentucky with a 94% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston?
The model projects Western Kentucky by 21.2.
What time is Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston and what channel is it on?
Thu, Oct 15, 12:00 AM on ESPN2, at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Western Kentucky at 94% to win, projecting Western Kentucky by 21.2.