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New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston Prediction, Odds & Pick
Thu, Oct 22, 12:00 AM
Elliott T. Bowers StadiumESPN2Conference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
SHSU 994
NMSU 1172
Projected spread
SHSU +7.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
NMSU
71% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
29%
SHSU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (SHSU Elo 994, NMSU Elo 1172) plus home-field advantage. That projects SHSU +7.6 (29% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelNMSU 71% · SHSU 29%
Pick: NMSU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
NMSU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedSHSU
Offense
0.05
PPA / play
0.0137%
Success rate
37%1.26
Explosiveness
1.243.21
Pts / opportunity
2.7969%
Power success
66%Defense
0.11
PPA allowed / play
0.2242%
Success rate allowed
48%1.21
Explosiveness allowed
1.2416%
Havoc rate
14%20%
Stuff rate
17%Key matchups · Pro
- SHSU pass offense (0.01 PPA) vs. NMSU pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge NMSU.
- NMSU rush offense (-0.09 PPA) vs. SHSU rush defense (0.15 allowed) — edge SHSU.
- NMSU pass offense (0.17 PPA) vs. SHSU pass defense (0.36 allowed) — edge SHSU.
FAQ
Who will win New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston?
Gridpex's model favors New Mexico State with a 71% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston?
The model projects New Mexico State by 7.6.
What time is New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston and what channel is it on?
Thu, Oct 22, 12:00 AM on ESPN2, at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this New Mexico State at 71% to win, projecting New Mexico State by 7.6.