Ahmad Hardy is a Featured Back for Missouri. Ahmad's 2025 season ranks in the 3th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 232 plays — a developing rate for the RB.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the RB mean. Model correlation r≈0.52 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers
The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.
- ▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
- ▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.38 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 1.18 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Louisiana (SP+ -10).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
| Player | Team | Yr | Plays | WEPA/play | Line val | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | Penn State | 2016 | 288 | 0.340 | 3.9 | 97.9 |
| Dalvin Cook | Florida State | 2016 | 292 | 0.340 | 4.3 | 99.3 |
| Breece Hall | Iowa State | 2020 | 301 | 0.340 | 4.5 | 102.3 |
| Donnel Pumphrey | San Diego State | 2016 | 344 | 0.320 | 4.2 | 110.1 |
| Eno Benjamin | Arizona State | 2018 | 316 | 0.330 | 4.6 | 104.3 |
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | Car | Rush Yds | Avg | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsCentral Arkansas | W61-6 | — | 10 | 100 | 10.0 | 1 | — | — | — | 0.82 |
| 2 | vsKansas | W42-31 | 4.1 | 25 | 112 | 4.5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -0.00 |
| 3 | vsLouisiana | W52-10 | -10.1 | 22 | 250 | 11.4 | 3 | — | — | — | 1.18 |
| 4 | vsSouth Carolina | W29-20 | 5.9 | 22 | 138 | 6.3 | 1 | — | — | — | 0.33 |
| 5 | vsMassachusetts | W42-6 | -36.6 | 24 | 130 | 5.4 | 3 | — | — | — | 0.47 |
| 7 | vsAlabama | L24-27 | 14.8 | 12 | 52 | 4.3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -0.06 |
| 8 | @Auburn | W23-17 | 11.6 | 24 | 58 | 2.4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 0 | -0.18 |
| 9 | @Vanderbilt | L10-17 | 20.3 | 20 | 97 | 4.9 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 11 | vsTexas A&M | L17-38 | 20.7 | 13 | 109 | 8.4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0.16 |
| 12 | vsMississippi State | W49-27 | 4.1 | 25 | 300 | 12.0 | 3 | — | — | — | 0.54 |
| 13 | @Oklahoma | L6-17 | 18.3 | 17 | 57 | 3.4 | 0 | — | — | — | -0.22 |
| 14 | @Arkansas | W31-17 | 5.1 | 27 | 157 | 5.8 | 1 | — | — | — | -0.02 |
| 1 | vsVirginia | L7-13 | 11.1 | 15 | 89 | 5.9 | 0 | — | — | — | -0.07 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.20
- Passing downs
- 0.36
- Pass / Rush EPA
- -0.40 / 0.24
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Career · rolling EPA, game by game
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.