Arch Manning is a Dual-Threat QB for Texas. Arch's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 393 plays — a developing rate for the QB.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the QB mean. Model correlation r≈0.46 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers
A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.
- ▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
- ▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
- ▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.28 from the first to second half of the season.
- ▸Peak game: 2.25 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs Mississippi State (SP+ 4).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | C/ATT | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | QBR | Rush Yds | Rush TD | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @Ohio State | L7-14 | 30.1 | 17/30 | 170 | 1 | 1 | 58.0 | 38 | 0 | -0.13 |
| 2 | vsSan José State | W38-7 | -14.3 | 19/30 | 295 | 4 | 1 | 74.4 | 23 | 1 | 0.33 |
| 3 | vsUTEP | W27-10 | -17.5 | 11/25 | 114 | 1 | 1 | 26.5 | 51 | 2 | 0.04 |
| 4 | vsSam Houston | W55-0 | -27.8 | 18/21 | 309 | 3 | 0 | 81.6 | 11 | 2 | 1.15 |
| 6 | @Florida | L21-29 | 3.5 | 16/29 | 263 | 2 | 2 | 70.5 | 37 | 0 | 0.21 |
| 7 | vsOklahoma | W23-6 | 18.3 | 21/27 | 166 | 1 | 0 | 89.0 | 34 | 0 | 0.50 |
| 8 | @Kentucky | W16-13 | 1.8 | 12/27 | 132 | 0 | 0 | 25.0 | -1 | 0 | -0.18 |
| 9 | @Mississippi State | W45-38 | 4.1 | 29/46 | 346 | 3 | 1 | 57.1 | 6 | 1 | 2.25 |
| 10 | vsVanderbilt | W34-31 | 20.3 | 25/33 | 328 | 3 | 0 | 93.1 | 4 | 0 | 0.42 |
| 12 | @Georgia | L10-35 | 24.1 | 27/43 | 251 | 1 | 1 | 59.7 | -17 | 0 | -0.02 |
| 13 | vsArkansas | W52-37 | 5.1 | 18/30 | 389 | 4 | 0 | 91.7 | 5 | 1 | 0.53 |
| 14 | vsTexas A&M | W27-17 | 20.7 | 14/29 | 179 | 1 | 0 | 91.5 | 53 | 1 | 0.12 |
| 1 | vsMichigan | W41-27 | 12.4 | 21/34 | 221 | 2 | 0 | 99.1 | 155 | 2 | 0.47 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.13
- Passing downs
- 0.41
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.20 / 0.59
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).