CJ Bailey is a Dual-Threat QB for NC State. CJ's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 404 plays — a developing rate for the QB. A four-star recruit in the class of 2024, CJ has shown flashes of the talent that made him a coveted recruit.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the QB mean. Model correlation r≈0.46 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
Recruiting Profile· Class of 2024
- Stars
- ★★★★★
- 247 composite
- 0.8933
- National rank
- #432
- High school
- Chaminade-Madonna
- Hometown
- Hollywood, FL
Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers
A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.
- ▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
- ▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
- ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
- ▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.26 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 0.99 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Campbell.
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | C/ATT | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | QBR | Rush Yds | Rush TD | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsEast Carolina | W24-17 | 8.0 | 24/34 | 318 | 1 | 1 | 78.5 | 21 | 1 | 0.42 |
| 2 | vsVirginia | W35-31 | 11.1 | 16/23 | 200 | 1 | 0 | 90.0 | 44 | 2 | 0.53 |
| 3 | @Wake Forest | W34-24 | 5.7 | 23/32 | 201 | 3 | 0 | 80.5 | 19 | 0 | 0.34 |
| 4 | @Duke | L33-45 | 6.6 | 29/39 | 364 | 2 | 3 | 66.3 | 9 | 0 | 0.38 |
| 5 | vsVirginia Tech | L21-23 | -10.1 | 26/34 | 240 | 2 | 0 | 63.7 | -19 | 0 | 0.41 |
| 6 | vsCampbell | W56-10 | — | 20/23 | 337 | 4 | 0 | 94.4 | 4 | 0 | 0.99 |
| 7 | @Notre Dame | L7-36 | 24.4 | 17/30 | 186 | 1 | 3 | 41.2 | -14 | 0 | -0.03 |
| 9 | @Pittsburgh | L34-53 | 8.4 | 24/40 | 225 | 3 | 0 | 52.7 | 39 | 0 | — |
| 10 | vsGeorgia Tech | W48-36 | 9.3 | 24/32 | 340 | 2 | 0 | 97.5 | 34 | 1 | 0.87 |
| 12 | @Miami | L7-41 | 20.7 | 17/30 | 120 | 0 | 2 | 13.6 | 11 | 1 | -0.03 |
| 13 | vsFlorida State | W21-11 | 7.2 | 18/25 | 152 | 2 | 0 | 63.8 | 2 | 0 | -0.13 |
| 14 | vsNorth Carolina | W42-19 | -6.6 | 21/30 | 201 | 2 | 0 | 89.5 | 65 | 0 | 0.32 |
| 1 | vsMemphis | W31-7 | 7.6 | 14/25 | 221 | 2 | 0 | 91.5 | 0 | 1 | 0.26 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.26
- Passing downs
- 0.50
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.36 / 0.43
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Career · rolling EPA, game by game
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.