#4Clay Thevenin
Clay Thevenin is a Pass-Catching Back for Louisiana Tech. Clay's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 140 plays — a developing rate for the RB.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the RB mean. Model correlation r≈0.52 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers
Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.
- ▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
- ▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.12 from the first to second half of the season.
- ▸Peak game: 0.66 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Sam Houston (SP+ -28).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
| Player | Team | Yr | Plays | WEPA/play | Line val | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | Penn State | 2016 | 288 | 0.340 | 3.9 | 97.9 |
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | Car | Rush Yds | Avg | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsSE Louisiana | W24-0 | — | 6 | 61 | 10.2 | 1 | — | — | — | 0.48 |
| 2 | @LSU | L7-23 | 10.3 | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | -0.17 |
| 3 | vsNew Mexico State | W49-14 | -15.5 | 11 | 68 | 6.2 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.27 |
| 4 | vsSouthern Miss | W30-20 | -7.1 | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 0.27 |
| 5 | @UTEP | W30-11 | -17.5 | 19 | 68 | 3.6 | 1 | — | — | — | -0.18 |
| 7 | @Kennesaw State | L7-35 | -5.4 | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 0.04 |
| 9 | vsWestern Kentucky | L27-28 | 1.6 | 12 | 35 | 2.9 | 0 | 6 | 52 | 0 | — |
| 10 | vsSam Houston | W55-14 | -27.8 | 11 | 143 | 13.0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0.66 |
| 11 | @Delaware | L24-25 | -10.9 | 10 | 64 | 6.4 | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 | 0.23 |
| 12 | @Washington State | L3-28 | 3.8 | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 0.03 |
| 13 | vsLiberty | W34-28 | -9.0 | 10 | 43 | 4.3 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 0 | -0.07 |
| 14 | @Missouri State | W42-30 | -10.7 | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 0 | 4 | 60 | 0 | 0.43 |
| 1 | vsCoastal Carolina | W23-14 | -15.1 | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 0.13 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.10
- Passing downs
- 0.35
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.52 / 0.06
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).