#13E.J. Warner
E.J. Warner is a Dual-Threat QB for Fresno State. E.J.'s 2025 season ranks in the 25th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 291 plays — a developing rate for the QB.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the QB mean. Model correlation r≈0.46 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers
A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.
- ▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
- ▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
- ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
- ▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.44 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 1.03 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Southern.
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | C/ATT | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | QBR | Rush Yds | Rush TD | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @Kansas | L7-31 | 4.1 | 18/29 | 179 | 0 | 2 | 66.1 | -23 | 0 | 0.52 |
| 1 | vsGeorgia Southern | W42-14 | -9.4 | 20/27 | 176 | 0 | 2 | 58.1 | 28 | 0 | 0.52 |
| 2 | @Oregon State | W36-27 | -15.9 | 13/18 | 121 | 0 | 1 | 80.8 | 57 | 1 | 0.75 |
| 3 | vsSouthern | W56-7 | — | 20/24 | 240 | 4 | 0 | 80.2 | -10 | 0 | 1.03 |
| 4 | @Hawai'i | W23-21 | 1.7 | 22/29 | 230 | 1 | 0 | 77.7 | 38 | 0 | 0.63 |
| 6 | vsNevada | W20-17 | -13.4 | 18/26 | 190 | 2 | 1 | 41.3 | -1 | 0 | 0.35 |
| 7 | @Colorado State | L21-49 | -15.6 | 28/49 | 350 | 3 | 3 | 26.2 | 2 | 0 | 0.19 |
| 13 | vsUtah State | L17-28 | -3.1 | 23/33 | 187 | 1 | 1 | 25.5 | 13 | 0 | -0.07 |
| 14 | @San José State | W41-14 | -14.3 | 15/20 | 138 | 1 | 1 | 46.2 | 21 | 0 | 0.29 |
| 1 | vsMiami (OH) | W18-3 | -3.4 | 15/22 | 219 | 1 | 0 | 87.3 | 23 | 0 | 0.49 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.31
- Passing downs
- 0.58
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.39 / 0.84
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).