Ismail Mahdi is a Explosive Back for Arizona. Ismail's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 137 plays — a developing rate for the RB.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the RB mean. Model correlation r≈0.52 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers
Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.
- ▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
- ▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.19 from the first to second half of the season.
- ▸Peak game: 1.44 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Colorado (SP+ -8).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
| Player | Team | Yr | Plays | WEPA/play | Line val | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | Penn State | 2016 | 288 | 0.340 | 3.9 | 97.9 |
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | Car | Rush Yds | Avg | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsHawai'i | W40-6 | 1.7 | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 0.18 |
| 2 | vsWeber State | W48-3 | — | 9 | 51 | 5.7 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 1 | 0.47 |
| 3 | vsKansas State | W23-17 | 7.0 | 22 | 189 | 8.6 | 0 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 0.49 |
| 5 | @Iowa State | L14-39 | 9.9 | 13 | 85 | 6.5 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0.17 |
| 6 | vsOklahoma State | W41-13 | -15.1 | 14 | 34 | 2.4 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.10 |
| 7 | vsBYU | L27-33 | 15.9 | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | -0.22 |
| 8 | @Houston | L28-31 | 7.4 | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0.03 |
| 10 | @Colorado | W52-17 | -8.3 | 3 | 85 | 28.3 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.44 |
| 11 | vsKansas | W24-20 | 4.1 | 7 | 61 | 8.7 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.35 |
| 12 | @Cincinnati | W30-24 | 4.5 | 7 | 48 | 6.9 | 1 | — | — | — | 0.35 |
| 13 | vsBaylor | W41-17 | 1.4 | 14 | 93 | 6.6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0.19 |
| 14 | @Arizona State | W23-7 | 3.9 | 14 | 53 | 3.8 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | -0.20 |
| 1 | vsSMU | L19-24 | 13.4 | 11 | 68 | 6.2 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 0.21 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.13
- Passing downs
- 0.31
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.15 / 0.17
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Career · rolling EPA, game by game
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.